How the Alcaraz-Sinner Beijing final showed the evolution of tennis

Tennis is evolving right before our eyes.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are reshaping how our sport is played, and updated match analytics are needed to understand exactly what patterns of play they are gravitating towards to forge their advantage. Alcaraz narrowly defeated Sinner 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) in the China Open final on Wednesday, and an analysis of their forays forward to the net provides ideal insight into how the next generation constructs their points.

Approach and volley has been a staple of our sport since its inception. The new norm is actually approach and no volley.

Alcaraz and Sinner moved forward to finish the point at the front of the court more than 100 times in the final, with over half of those points not involving a volley. The data set comprises all points where players moved forward in the court towards the net to finish points. It includes serve and volley, return approach, and general rally balls where either player steps towards the net to build or end the point.

Approaching The Net/No Volley Hit
- Alcaraz = 58% (38/66) no volley hit.
- Sinner = 74% (29/39) no volley hit.
- Total = 64% (67/105) no volley hit.

Alcaraz and Sinner prefer to end net points before they get competitive. Approach shots in today’s game are a different animal than just a few decades ago. Both players crushed their approach shots with significant power and spin, not giving their opponent a chance to wriggle their way out of trouble. Alcaraz and Sinner combined to hit 22 approach winners for the match.

Coming forward to finish a point and not having to hit a volley was by far the number-one way points ended when both players ventured forward.

Combined: Volleys Hit
- Zero volley hit = 64% (67)
- One volley hit = 28% (30)
- Two volleys hit = 8% (8)
- Total = 105

The number one way to come forward was with a forehand approach shot.

Alcaraz Approach Shots
- Forehand = 40
- Forehand Return = 1
- Backhand = 9
- Backhand Return = 10
- Serve & Volley = 6
- Total = 66

Sinner Approach Shots
- Forehand = 27
- Backhand = 11
- Serve & Volley = 1
- Total = 39

What is fascinating is that Alcaraz employed 11 return approaches in the match, immediately ramping up the pressure on Sinner to hit a passing shot. Alcaraz only missed one of the return approaches. Overall, he came in 10 times with a backhand approach and just once with a forehand approach. With this aggressive tactic, he won an impressive eight of 11 points, including all four he employed in the third set.

Lastly, Alcaraz was able to take advantage of the higher winning percentage at the net over the baseline much more when he was returning serve than Sinner.

BEIJING CHAMPION 🏆

In a breathtaking final, @carlosalcaraz fights back to defeat the defending champion Sinner 6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3) for the #ChinaOpen title!@chinaopen pic.twitter.com/idvMd6LRiz

— ATP Tour (@atptour) October 2, 2024

Alcaraz Start Of The Point & Finishing At Net
- 56% Serving (37)
- 44% Returning (29)
- Total = 66

Sinner Start Of The Point & Finishing At Net
- 67% Serving (26)
- 33% Returning (13)
- Total = 39

Successfully moving forward to finish points at net when starting the point with a return of serve is a hidden weapon for Alcaraz. He can first neutralise the point with a strong return or use the short serve in the service box to immediately approach. At any moment, at any point score, both Alcaraz and Sinner were swarming the net to apply pressure to their opponent.

These two players are going to set the tone for how our sport is played for years to come. The front of the court is making a revival.