Where Sinner found his advantage against Zverev in the Australian Open final

The forehand broke early.

Alexander Zverev hit just three forehand winners while racking up 35 forehand errors in a losing effort to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open singles final on Sunday evening. The Italian won 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3, and successfully threw everything he had at the German’s forehand to gain critical baseline superiority.

Sinner collected a commanding 12 forehand winners and continuously targeted Zverev’s forehand in baseline exchanges. The German’s forehand actually started to misbehave in his semi-final victory over Novak Djokovic. Zverev committed 19 forehand errors in just one set played against the Serbian and advanced when Djokovic retired with a leg injury.

The writing was on the wall early in the final when Zverev committed three forehand errors in the opening game with Sinner serving. Zverev was initially broken serving at 3-4 in set one when he coughed up two forehand errors in the game.

Zverev’s forehand was always the wild card in this blockbuster championship clash. It had the potential at times to play through Sinner. But overall, it fell squarely in the liability column. Sinner generated superiority in all three rally lengths played in the final.

Rally Length Points Won

• 0-4 Shots: Sinner 60/Zverev 52
• 5-8 Shots: Sinner 20/Zverev 18
• 9+ Shots: Sinner 27/Zverev 13

Sinner built an eight-point advantage in short rallies, a two-point advantage in medium-length rallies, and a commanding 14-point advantage in rallies of nine shots or longer. Zverev tried to sink his teeth into the rally the longer it went, but it was Sinner who was able to successfully push him to the edges of the court.

The average rally length for the final was 5.01 shots, which was longer than five of the six matches Sinner played to the final. It’s important to note that Sinner did not lose serve in the final and remarkably did not face a break point. On the other side of the net, Zverev faced 10 break points, saving eight.

Zverev ventured forward to the net twice as much as Sinner to escape the relentless baseline attack, but his winning percentage was not high enough to help grab the momentum he desperately needed.

Net Points Won

• Zverev = 52% 14/27)
• Sinner = 77% (10/13)

As much as Zverev tried to find solutions to solve his problems, the baseline was never going to be a place where he could get his head above water.

Baseline Points Won

• Zverev = 36% (37/103)
• Sinner = 59% (69/117)

There were 220 points played with either player at the baseline, and Sinner won a commanding 59 per cent of his baseline points compared to just 36 per cent for Zverev. Overall for the tournament, Sinner won 56 per cent (432/765) of his baseline points, making him the tournament leader for any competitor who won at least one match.

In summary, Zverev could not go through the Italian or construct a way around him. Sinner won 24 more total points in the final (107-83) and won 33 more points (69-37) from the baseline. Zverev’s problems started with three forehand errors in game one. It set the tone for a battle that was simply too complex to overcome.