Predictor Picks: Nothing to lose with Sinner in Madrid

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The clay-court season continues with a critical ATP Masters 1000 event in Madrid. The world’s best players will try to earn important PIF ATP Rankings points at the Mutua Madrid Open, where Carlos Alcaraz is the defending champion.

Players like Barcelona champion Casper Ruud and Monte-Carlo winner Stefanos Tsitsipas arrive with plenty of momentum.

Before each tournament week, ATPTour.com looks at three players who might be good selections for fans in the PIF ATP Rankings Predictor.

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Jannik Sinner — defending 0 points
The Italian has been the story of the 2024 season, claiming his first major title at the Australian Open and carrying that form to championship victories in Rotterdam and Miami. The 22-year-old is at a career-high No. 2 in the PIF ATP Rankings and can now turn his attention to Novak Djokovic’s No. 1 spot.

One year ago, Sinner did not compete in Madrid, so he is not defending any points this year at the Caja Magica. As the top seed, every match he wins will add more positive net points to his total for the event.

While hard courts have been Sinner’s happiest hunting ground according to Infosys ATP Stats (77% win rate), he has also performed well on clay (68.7%) and began his clay season by reaching the Monte-Carlo semi-finals, where he led eventual champion Tsitsipas by a break in the deciding set.

Sinner could play close friend Lorenzo Sonego in his opening match with 32nd seed Jordan Thompson his first potential seeded opponent.

Casper Ruud — dropping 45 points
Ruud has found his best tennis early in 2024, surging to third in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin by winning his first ATP 500 title in Barcelona. Having also made the Monte-Carlo final, the Norwegian takes plenty of confidence to Madrid.

The ATP Tour’s leader in match wins (29) lost his opening match at the Caja Magica last year to Matteo Arnaldi, giving him an opportunity to earn up to 955 net points this week. He will try to claim his first ATP Masters 1000 title.

A semi-finalist in Madrid in 2021, Ruud has performed well at the tournament before. Having won multiple matches in every tournament he has played this year, why not back him to continue his consistency?

The only concern for the PIF ATP Rankings Predictor is that Ruud, who will open against Miomir Kecmanovic or Zhang Zhizhen, is in the same quarter of the draw as Sinner. So if you pick both players for your team, should they meet in the quarter-finals, you'll be guaranteed to have a semi-finalist on board.

Ben Shelton — defending 10 points
Shelton is a low-risk, high-reward pick in Madrid. Defending just 10 points, he has the potential to earn a lot of points for your team this week.

The 14th seed, who will play Tomas Machac or Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round, has only played 13 tour-level matches on clay in his career. But just a few weeks ago in Houston, he lifted the trophy on the red dirt.

Historically, Madrid has been a haven for big servers like Shelton thanks to its altitude. Last year, Jan-Lennard Struff made a dream run to the final. Can the American Shelton be the next dark horse pick to make a surprise run at the Caja Magica?

Bonus Ball — Jannik Sinner
Sinner has been the best player in the world this year by a sizable margin. The Italian leads the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin by 1,650 points over second-placed Daniil Medvedev.

With hot form and no points to defend in Madrid, and the 22-year-old is an easy pick for your Bonus Ball this week. For many tournaments, the very best players in the world will be a risky selection because they will be defending a lot of points. The opposite is the case with Sinner, leaving fans a big opportunity to earn net points with the Italian.